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Looking for the Silver Lining in the Mushroom Cloud
Introduction:
The most recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran’s nuclear program indicates that it has continued to refine uranium and is developing an implosion-type detonation device. The most recent US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program also reverses claims previously made in the 2007 NIE, which claimed that Iran was not actively pursuing nuclear weapons. The 2011 NIE is secret, but rumors indicate that Iran is actively pursuing a weapons program and will have the capability to develop a weapon within a few years.
History of Iran's Nuclear Program
A brief review of the history of Iran’s nuclear program is in order. Iran’s nuclear program began in 1957. Under the auspices of US President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” program, Iran received fuel, small reactors, expertise, and low-enriched uranium (LEU). In 1968, Iran signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and completed its safeguards agreement with the IAEA. France and Germany also worked with Iran in the 1970s. A 1974 US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) determined that the Shah was likely to attempt a nuclear weapons program; that same year, India detonated its first nuclear weapon. Nonproliferation concerns caused France and Germany to abandon their nuclear reactor projects in Iran.
After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Western powers cut off most diplomatic and economic relations, with the US personally blocking bilateral agreements for nuclear power and fuel between Iran and Argentina, China, and Russia. Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities in 1981, but the program was rebuilt, in part, by help from Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan. After Khomeini’s death, his successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reprioritized technological development and research, including the nuclear weapons program. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 may have led the Iranians to place a moratorium on their nuclear weapons program, as reported in a 2007 NIE. (Bruno, 2010) However, recent evidence, summarized in the Nov. 8 IAEA report, indicate that Iran has continued to make progress refining uranium to weapons-grade and is working on the detonation device that will make it a practical weapon.
Iran and the NPT
Iran had previously been cited for violations of the NPT, specifically Article III, which requires signatories to comply with the IAEA to implement safeguards and inspections. (NPT Treaty, 1968) Iran has refused to provide the IAEA access or information to all of its nuclear facilities on numerous occasions. The most recent report claims that Iran is now in violation of Article II as well, as it is developing a mechanism for detonating a nuclear weapon.
China, Russia, and Iran's Economy:
Unfortunately for the parties worried about a nuclear-armed Iran, neither the Chinese nor the Russians appear to be willing to turn against their ally of sorts. The Chinese import the vast majority of Iranian oil, and, with the withdrawal of most Western business, constitute a large share of the foreign investment and trade with Iran. China has invested over $40 billion in energy projects in Iran and is the regime’s largest trading partner, with over $20 billion in trade each year. (Alwatan Daily, 2010) For its part, Russia has agreed to $1-2 billion of projects with Iran to develop nuclear power plants at Bushehr, with the promise of more cooperation down the road. (GlobalSecurity.org, 2011) Therefore, while recent news reports from the White House indicated agreement between the US, Russia, and China on Iran’s nuclear program, it is unclear whether that means a new round of UN sanctions would not be vetoed by either party.
It is worth noting that while sanctions have not stopped the nuclear program, they have hurt the Iranian economy, leading to increasing amounts of unrest, most recently culminating in the failed Green Revolution of 2009-2010. Some optimists hold out the hope of internal regime change in Iran, one that would bring a pro-Western government to power that would disarm. However, the Arab Spring has left Iran relatively untouched, and the case of Syria – Iran’s close ally – indicates that regime change will not happen while a majority of the army remains loyal to the government.
The global recession also caused oil prices to plunge, which have severely limited Iran’s ability to raise foreign currency. Note that its break-even point for crude prices for Iran was at $90/bbl as of 2008, well above oil prices for most of the last three years. (Gulf Times, 2008). Consequently, the Iranian government, which has limited opportunity for borrowing abroad, has likely reduced domestic oil subsidies, probably leading to greater economic hardship and social instability. Note that the Arab Spring happened when it did in part because of a spike in food prices.While this suggests that regime change could solve the problem for the world, most analysts anticipate that it would take a few years – longer than the time it would take for Iran to successfully produce a nuclear weapon.
Military Intervention in Iran:
This leaves the option of military intervention. The most likely scenarios involve either the United States or Israel bombing the known and suspected nuclear facilities. It is unclear, however, what percentage of the weapons facilities are known and vulnerable to airstrikes.
Another, less likely but intriguing scenario, would have an Arab nation or coalition attack Iran’s nuclear program. This prospect seems somewhat less far-fetched when one considers the historically strained relationship between the Arab states and Iran, born of religious and ethnic differences as well as concerns that its population and resources could overrun small (Jordan) or sparsely populated (Saudi Arabia) Arab states. The recent Wikileaks release indicates that Arab diplomats are very concerned about a nuclear Iran. (Zirulnick, 2010). If the Arab states will not attack Iran directly, they may be willing to offer public support for a military option.
The next six months will be critical. Israel has indicated that it believes that Iran will have a weapon within a year. Given that it views an Iranian nuclear weapon as an existential threat (and Iran itself has done little to dissuade them of that idea), then it is likely that Israel or the United States will act within that time period.
References:
Bruno, Greg. (2010). “Iran’s Nuclear Program”. Council on Foreign Relations. Available at http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811.
Zirulnick, Ariel. (Nov. 29, 2010) “WikiLeaks reveals 5 Arab countries concerned about Iran”. Christian Science Monitor. Available at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/1129/WikiLeaks-reveals-5-Arab-countries-concerned-about-Iran/Saudi-Arabia.
(Nov. 8, 2011) Implementation of the NPT Safeguards agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran. International Atomic Energy Agency. GOV/2011/65. Available at http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iaeairan/bog112011-65.pdf.
(1967) The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). United Nations. Available at http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/npttext.shtml
(2011) “WMDs: Bushehr”. Globalsecurity.org. Available at http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/bushehr.htm.
(August 1, 2010) “China invests $40 billion in energy, gas”. Alwatan Daily. Available at http://alwatandaily.kuwait.tt/resources/pdf/802/12.pdf.
(Sept. 21, 2008). “Saudi needs oil above $49 to avoid deficit; Qatar break-even $24: IMF”. Gulf Times. Available at http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=242775&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28
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