On this day of brown,
Stuffed turkeys, friends are thankful
They're upwind of me.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Compromises and evaluating outcomes
This isn't response to any specific thing. Just thinking aloud.
I think one of the things that drives a lot of us crazy is the gulf between what is and what we think ought to be. It's driven me stark raving mad on several occasions. But, I think in our more pragmatic, less ideological moments, we can appreciate that progress is measured not just against ideals, but against alternative outcomes. I still struggle mightily with this, but the more I consider it, the more I feel it's healthy and, long-term, more productive.
We may not always be able to face the clear choice between pure and corrupted processes or outcomes. Instead, we might have to content ourselves with probabilistic arguments about choices and outcomes that are superior to alternatives.
This is NOT an endorsement of nihilism/fatalism. A case-based strategic evaluation of a lot of problems is still vital for overcoming external and internal problems. But it might be a willingness to explore, and at some point, more fully articulate the need to stop smashing against the glass wall standing between the present and unrealistic dreams.
I think one of the things that drives a lot of us crazy is the gulf between what is and what we think ought to be. It's driven me stark raving mad on several occasions. But, I think in our more pragmatic, less ideological moments, we can appreciate that progress is measured not just against ideals, but against alternative outcomes. I still struggle mightily with this, but the more I consider it, the more I feel it's healthy and, long-term, more productive.
We may not always be able to face the clear choice between pure and corrupted processes or outcomes. Instead, we might have to content ourselves with probabilistic arguments about choices and outcomes that are superior to alternatives.
This is NOT an endorsement of nihilism/fatalism. A case-based strategic evaluation of a lot of problems is still vital for overcoming external and internal problems. But it might be a willingness to explore, and at some point, more fully articulate the need to stop smashing against the glass wall standing between the present and unrealistic dreams.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Dale Corson
It appears a new book and DVD has come out on the life of Cornell President Dale Corson. I look forward to reading this.
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/Sept09/CorsonLegacy.html
I had the opportunity to interview Dale a couple times at the Kendall retirement community in preparation for a 50th anniversary Sputnik panel discussion. He is, today, at 95 years young, a bright and wonderful conversationalist. I began to understand WHY there are jokes about Kendal having a better physics department than Cornell - there are a lot of brilliant people there.
I think the book focuses on his tenure as Cornell President and controversies centered around the Vietnam protests. But I'm actually more interested in his earlier years. From what I gathered, Corson was a figure in the Presidential Science Advisory Council and was party to the remarkable post-Sputnik efforts in science education. He was also a key figure in creating Cornell's Science and Technology Studies department.
If you're interested in science policy or the history of science in postwar America get a chance, try to get a chance to speak with him. His legacy continues to be written - as are all of ours - by simple words and stories that, unknown to the speaker, sticks with the listener for a long time.
Old Words
I recently sent out some tutoring applications, which gave me an opportunity to peruse some dusty files from my academic career. I stumbled across an essay I had written for the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program.
I'm a little surprised how much my perception of the essay, and myself, has changed since late 2005. As late as 2007, I had thought it was a pretty good essay, and that by writing it, I was holding myself to the standards I had outlined. I had spent a couple months working on it, passing drafts back and forth with my adviser. To this day, I'm grateful for his tremendous insights into the grant application process, as well as the time and effort he expended on my behalf.
I'm a little surprised how much my perception of the essay, and myself, has changed since late 2005. As late as 2007, I had thought it was a pretty good essay, and that by writing it, I was holding myself to the standards I had outlined. I had spent a couple months working on it, passing drafts back and forth with my adviser. To this day, I'm grateful for his tremendous insights into the grant application process, as well as the time and effort he expended on my behalf.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Willy Brandt and Barack Obama
I spent a bit of time this morning reading about former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt, prompted by comparisons with Obama on receiving the Peace Prize. (Brandt received it in 1971 after articulating a policy of Neue Ostpolitik - engagement with the Communist East, but before substantial tangible progress had been made.)
Frank Rich as a model 21st century columnist
I'm linking to Frank Rich's most recent Op-Ed piece on the dangers of escalating the war in Afghanistan ("Two Wrongs Make Another Fiasco"). But before going into the content, I wanted to highlight that Mr. Rich, perhaps better than any other Op-Ed contributor at a print publication, makes liberal use of embedded links. I find this an incredibly useful tool to those of us who read the NYTimes online.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Modern Protest
This post was initiated by an interesting article in today's NYTimes:
Legal Cost for Throwing Monkey Wrench Into the System
Briefly, a man is facing charges of fraud for intentionally placing bids for oil and gas rights on federally owned land near national parks and monuments.
This case is fascinating for a number of reasons. I recently met a young law student from Yale who wanted to become a federal prosecutor, partly because he wanted to make sure that he could sleep at night. He said that most of the defendants brought before federal court are guilty. (I did remind him that, while probably correct, the high conviction rate could mean other things.) Cases like this, where it is clear that the defendant broke the letter of the law, but the government's actions are also suspect and conflicting, do not lend themselves to easy moral resolution.
Perhaps less philosophically, and more practically, I think this is a fine example of how protest and dissent has evolved. In the last couple years, journalists noticed the difference between Vietnam-era protests by soldiers and today's professional lobbying, permitted by existing military regulation, used by active servicemen seeking an end to the Iraq War.
Every generation is heterogeneous. But I think enough of us see opportunities to use either (or both) Alinsky-esque tactics of disruption and reform efforts using existing institutions and structures.
Though he is guilty of breaking the law, I salute Tim DeChristopher for using an innovative, effective and nonviolent method of protest, and wish him well in his defense.
Legal Cost for Throwing Monkey Wrench Into the System
Briefly, a man is facing charges of fraud for intentionally placing bids for oil and gas rights on federally owned land near national parks and monuments.
This case is fascinating for a number of reasons. I recently met a young law student from Yale who wanted to become a federal prosecutor, partly because he wanted to make sure that he could sleep at night. He said that most of the defendants brought before federal court are guilty. (I did remind him that, while probably correct, the high conviction rate could mean other things.) Cases like this, where it is clear that the defendant broke the letter of the law, but the government's actions are also suspect and conflicting, do not lend themselves to easy moral resolution.
Perhaps less philosophically, and more practically, I think this is a fine example of how protest and dissent has evolved. In the last couple years, journalists noticed the difference between Vietnam-era protests by soldiers and today's professional lobbying, permitted by existing military regulation, used by active servicemen seeking an end to the Iraq War.
Every generation is heterogeneous. But I think enough of us see opportunities to use either (or both) Alinsky-esque tactics of disruption and reform efforts using existing institutions and structures.
Though he is guilty of breaking the law, I salute Tim DeChristopher for using an innovative, effective and nonviolent method of protest, and wish him well in his defense.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Review of Capitalism: A Love Story
I just saw Michael Moore's new film, Capitalism: A Love Story. His most recent film explores a timely theme - America's relationship with American-style capitalism, and the chief architects of the system.
It wasn't my plan to watch it opening day - I'd actually forgotten about it, until I stumbled across Thursday's Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien interview with Michael Moore.
Capitalism: A Love Story is not an examination of who knew what, and when they knew it. Like his other films, it's more of an indictment of our elected leaders, our institutions, and our culture.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Wedding
Today was a good day. I went to Irina and Brian's wedding, and had a wonderful time. It was good to see them again, but of course, I had to share them with the rest of the eager visitors and wellwishers.
It was wonderful to discover that the people there were bright, charismatic, and wonderfully conversant on a number of topics. I was sandwiched between two people - a blast from the past - back when I was a neophyte Europhile (or Eurosceptic, depending on the day of the week). Inbetween comments on how the four-year old boy was having more success meeting women than me, I had a couple great discussions on the financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe and nuclear nonproliferation.
It was like water to a thirsty man in the desert.
It was wonderful to discover that the people there were bright, charismatic, and wonderfully conversant on a number of topics. I was sandwiched between two people - a blast from the past - back when I was a neophyte Europhile (or Eurosceptic, depending on the day of the week). Inbetween comments on how the four-year old boy was having more success meeting women than me, I had a couple great discussions on the financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe and nuclear nonproliferation.
It was like water to a thirsty man in the desert.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Eulogy for Robert F Kennedy, delivered by Edward Kennedy
Consistently ranked as one of the finest speeches in American politics, the eulogy Ted Kennedy gave for his brother, Robert, is worth reading, and worth hearing. I may have more to write about Ted Kennedy later, but I encourage everyone to give this speech a listen.
Eulogy for Robert F Kennedy
Eulogy for Robert F Kennedy
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Yamada Nagamasa
On a narcissistic impulse, I decided to do a search for famous Yamadas. There appears to be a modest mix of names, especially given that it's the 13th most common surname in Japan. I found a retainer for the Shimazu clan, a comedian/governor of Osaka prefecture later disgraced by a sexual harassment conviction, some pop stars and models, and one general from Imperial Japan.
Yamada Nagamasa caught my eye because he was listed as an "adventurer; ruler of a province of Thailand".
Yamada Nagamasa caught my eye because he was listed as an "adventurer; ruler of a province of Thailand".
Friday, August 21, 2009
Science Friday - Food security and Science in America
I've had a head cold all week. It's terrible, and entering into the achy, can't-drive-so-I'll-nap-and-drink-coffee-at-Starbucks-in-Virginia-because-I-needed-to-get-out-of-the-house-but-underestimated-my-fatigue phase. I should at least be no longer contagious by the time Mom stops by on Sunday, giving me a chance to acquire whatever contagions she picked up flying through O'Hare.
One good thing came of this trip. (It wasn't the Mexican food in Leesburg - what the hell was I thinking?) I listened to parts of both hours of Science Friday, hosted by Ira Flatow. Ann, it's taken me four years to actually getting around to sampling the program. And I can safely say that your enthusiasm for the show wasn't just your characteristic enthusiasm for life in general. It's an excellent program that discusses substantive issues in an easy-to-understand way.
One good thing came of this trip. (It wasn't the Mexican food in Leesburg - what the hell was I thinking?) I listened to parts of both hours of Science Friday, hosted by Ira Flatow. Ann, it's taken me four years to actually getting around to sampling the program. And I can safely say that your enthusiasm for the show wasn't just your characteristic enthusiasm for life in general. It's an excellent program that discusses substantive issues in an easy-to-understand way.
Monday, August 10, 2009
A letter to myself
Dear Ryan,
I'm writing this letter because you seem to be adrift, lost, in desperate need of some encouragement, advice, chastisement, and even, more fundamentally, company. You seem unsatisfied with the words and actions of others, and so, since I have some unique insight and stake in the matter, I will give it a try.
It's time for you to speak plainly, and be spoken plainly to.
Here is where you are: you are with your back to your wall, emotionally, intellectually, physically, professionally, socially, and financially. There is nowhere to run, no more lies to tell yourself or others. You have failed to run from life, and now life has come to find you.
I'm writing this letter because you seem to be adrift, lost, in desperate need of some encouragement, advice, chastisement, and even, more fundamentally, company. You seem unsatisfied with the words and actions of others, and so, since I have some unique insight and stake in the matter, I will give it a try.
It's time for you to speak plainly, and be spoken plainly to.
Here is where you are: you are with your back to your wall, emotionally, intellectually, physically, professionally, socially, and financially. There is nowhere to run, no more lies to tell yourself or others. You have failed to run from life, and now life has come to find you.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
The Worst Mistake
The Worst Mistake
I made a lot of mistakes when I was at Cornell. I didn't seek out help when I felt myself hitting intellectual walls. I wasn't organized with my time, both academically and personally, as I needed to be.
But the worst mistake? I let myself get intimidated.
Even after I decided to leave, even after I knew, at some level, that the individuals in my department, or at the university, would have at best a modest professional impact on my future, I was still intimidated, to the point of being scared. I was intimidated by my boss. I was intimidated by my mentors. I was intimidated by the place, by the damn history and brand of the Ivy League.
I made a lot of mistakes when I was at Cornell. I didn't seek out help when I felt myself hitting intellectual walls. I wasn't organized with my time, both academically and personally, as I needed to be.
But the worst mistake? I let myself get intimidated.
Even after I decided to leave, even after I knew, at some level, that the individuals in my department, or at the university, would have at best a modest professional impact on my future, I was still intimidated, to the point of being scared. I was intimidated by my boss. I was intimidated by my mentors. I was intimidated by the place, by the damn history and brand of the Ivy League.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
15 Books - Part 5 of 5
The Waste Land and Other Poems- T.S. Eliot
I think I was introduced to T.S. Eliot in high school, sophomore year English. There was a lot of great stuff the legendary Eric Burgess taught in that course, but I'm not completely certain this was one of them. I might've read it on my own. Or I might have the provenance wrong - maybe I read it junior or senior year. But in any case, "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock"* made enough of an impression on me that I went out and bought the anthology The Waste Land and Other Poems.
15 Books - Part 4 of 5
Partners in Command: George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower in War and Peace
Updated 08/03/2009: I'm adding to this section, because this book is far more impressive and personally important than my previous post indicated.
I love history, especially a history that managed to capture the extent to which systemic events and circumstances were influenced by individuals. I think it helps me bridge the gap between my theoretical third image view of the world (admittedly imperfect and incomplete, yet I am still emotionally attached to what I've got) and how things actually get done in a world of individuals of competing motivations, egos, and quirks. This book captured both history and biography of two impressive Americans. I also appreciate how the men we admire and revere were imperfect, came from middling backgrounds, and yet transcended, or more accurately, transformed, their history into our history. They did this through a combination of choices, training, ambition, ethics, and especially partnership.
15 Books - Part 3 of 5
Hamlet - William Shakespeare
There's a "joke" that goes something like this.
A group of (tenured) English professors was sitting around, drinking (of course), and hit upon a game. Each of them would call out a significant book of English literature they'd never read, and try to outdo each other. One calls out "Huckleberry Finn!", which gets some chuckles and smattered applause. (See Death of a Salesman entry. One calls out "Mansfield Park!" which gets some oohs and even more applause. They continue, until finally someone shouts "Hamlet!". There is stunned silence. The very next day, the professor finds he is fired.
15 Books - Part 2 of 5
The Dynamic Universe: An Introduction to Astronomy - Second Edition - Theodore P. Snow
I received my copy from Pat Uyemura, my Sunday School teacher at Montebello Plymouth Congregational Church. Those of you who wonder at my ability to reconcile communities of religion and science need only look to this event, and the associated encouragement, for the beginning of an answer. I admired "Mr. Pat" tremendously. He was, and is, a very bright, creative individual who always had a ready smile and a great way of making kids feel like you want to be smarter, more knowledgeable, and better behaved. (Mr. Pat may contend he had the opposite effect on the last point, but he need only check notes with my mom to reveal he actually did see us at our best behaved.)
15 Books - Part 1 of 5
The 48 Laws of Power - Robert Greene and Joost Elferrs
I like this book, and not because I agree with its lessons. It takes a bit of a darker view in human nature than I find convenient -- maybe even darker than is accurate.
15 Books - Intro
15 Books
I decided to modify this to include part of the reasons why it made my top 15. It took a lot longer to write, but it was a helpful exercise. I've listed the 15 - subsequent posts will explain my reasoning, for those interested in the why as well as the what.
Note that these aren't the 15 best books I've read - I was actually a little torn how some of my favorite books didn't make the list, and how some less favored were no-brainer inclusions. These are the 15 books that have most shaped my life. They are in alphabetical order, largely because it's difficult to compare impact of one type with another.
I decided to modify this to include part of the reasons why it made my top 15. It took a lot longer to write, but it was a helpful exercise. I've listed the 15 - subsequent posts will explain my reasoning, for those interested in the why as well as the what.
Note that these aren't the 15 best books I've read - I was actually a little torn how some of my favorite books didn't make the list, and how some less favored were no-brainer inclusions. These are the 15 books that have most shaped my life. They are in alphabetical order, largely because it's difficult to compare impact of one type with another.
A Tale of Two Texas (because there is no plural form for a singular state)
A question for Texans - how have your opinions on both legal and illegal immigration from Latin America changed over the last few years?
In the last week, I've heard/read two different reports of the perspective of Texans on immigration (specifically, Mexican/Latin American immigration). One comes from a July 9 Economist podcast. (Note: I have linked the story, not the podcast; the podcast interview mentions this fact, while the article does not.)
While largely focused on the economic, political, and structural factors that allowed Texas to better weather the recession than other sunbelt states (notably, California), I was particularly drawn to the point that Texans actually have a more favorable view of (legal) Latin American immigrants than the vast majority of the country.
The second comes from a NYTimes article on the strong shift in sentiment concerning illegal Latin American immigrants, especially in the wake of the 2006 murder of a Houston police officer by a previously deported felon, and the near-death of another officer in March at the hands of another illegal immigrant with a criminal history.
What both articles do not provide is a sense of how average Texans view immigrants, both legal and illegal, and the impact that a recession has had on both.* Historically, communities, Texan or otherwise, have looked with hostility toward immigrants during times of economic duress. California, for example, had armed vigilantes at its Eastern border to keep "Okies" and other internally displaced persons during the Great Depression.
So, Texans, time to speak up. Has there been a change? How have your opinions, and the opinions of your community, on both legal and illegal immigration from Latin America changed over the last few years?
*I hope to search for, and find, some longitudinal data on this, broken down by state. Will try Pew and a few other organizations - recommendations greatly appreciated. Naturally, I will update this post when I find them.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
ETF spreadsheet updated for week of Jul 13-17
Update 15 Jul 2009, 18:17 - Updated with values from today's trading; should be ready to go for Thursday. (link) Sorry it took a while. Note: simple moving average and Bollinger band data NOT updated. Given the size and scope of the rally, I may update these at some point tomorrow - old Bollinger data is unacceptable when an ETF begins riding it up/down.
Update 15 Jul 2009, 11:25 - Updated with values from yesterday's trading. Sorry it took a while. Note: simple moving average and Bollinger band data NOT updated, but should be acceptable for the rest of this week.
Update 13 Jul 2009, 19:22 - Updated with values from today's trading. Note: simple moving average and Bollinger band data NOT updated, but should be acceptable for the rest of this week.
I've updated my custom ETF spreadsheet that covers a ton of sectors, asset classes, and related Proshares/Direxion leveraged and inverse ETFs, where available.
Refer to my earlier post for instructions on how to read/interpret the spreadsheet. Do let me know if you note any errors, or would like to see changes.
NOTE: The pivot-based levels are calculated based on the previous trading day's range, and might be effective only for the next trading day (Monday). I'm considering experimenting with weekly pivots, which might be more useful than the daily pivot levels. I need to consider whether I will be updating this spreadsheet daily or weekly. If you know of ways to automate the download of some of these values (trading ranges, 20, 50, 200 day SMAs, and Bollinger Bands), please contact me ASAP!
Thanks!
Ryan
Update 15 Jul 2009, 11:25 - Updated with values from yesterday's trading. Sorry it took a while. Note: simple moving average and Bollinger band data NOT updated, but should be acceptable for the rest of this week.
Update 13 Jul 2009, 19:22 - Updated with values from today's trading. Note: simple moving average and Bollinger band data NOT updated, but should be acceptable for the rest of this week.
I've updated my custom ETF spreadsheet that covers a ton of sectors, asset classes, and related Proshares/Direxion leveraged and inverse ETFs, where available.
Refer to my earlier post for instructions on how to read/interpret the spreadsheet. Do let me know if you note any errors, or would like to see changes.
NOTE: The pivot-based levels are calculated based on the previous trading day's range, and might be effective only for the next trading day (Monday). I'm considering experimenting with weekly pivots, which might be more useful than the daily pivot levels. I need to consider whether I will be updating this spreadsheet daily or weekly. If you know of ways to automate the download of some of these values (trading ranges, 20, 50, 200 day SMAs, and Bollinger Bands), please contact me ASAP!
Thanks!
Ryan
Follow-up analysis to HuffPo article on policy coordination
Follow-up analysis to David Bromwich: A Line in the Sand is Occasionally Useful
I just came across a short article at HuffPo about how Obama has publicly corrected statements made by Biden and Emmanuel regarding Israel and a public health care option, respectively. Bromwich should be praised for catching these easily-overlooked events, but I feel he takes the wrong message from each of these. I infer the following: either (1) Obama is using an internal system of advisement similar to that used by other leaders - particularly Elizabeth I and Louis XIV, whereby his silence and ambiguity on suggested ideas is a valuable tactic, or (2) the Administration is using Biden, Emmanuel, and others to float trial policies, to be reversed or modified based on the response.
I just came across a short article at HuffPo about how Obama has publicly corrected statements made by Biden and Emmanuel regarding Israel and a public health care option, respectively. Bromwich should be praised for catching these easily-overlooked events, but I feel he takes the wrong message from each of these. I infer the following: either (1) Obama is using an internal system of advisement similar to that used by other leaders - particularly Elizabeth I and Louis XIV, whereby his silence and ambiguity on suggested ideas is a valuable tactic, or (2) the Administration is using Biden, Emmanuel, and others to float trial policies, to be reversed or modified based on the response.
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Interesting arb. opp. for cash advance/float
I occasionally peruse the Fatwallet.com Finance forum and have stumbled across some interesting ideas. In addition to providing me about $1,000 in "free cash" over the last year by highlighting sign-up bonuses for checking accounts, it provides some interesting and clever ways of making successful use of unintended consequences.
One I have taken advantage of is the US Mint $1 Presidential Coin Direct Shipment program.
One I have taken advantage of is the US Mint $1 Presidential Coin Direct Shipment program.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
ETF spreadsheet updated for week of July 6-10
I've updated my custom ETF spreadsheet that covers a ton of sectors, asset classes, and related Proshares/Direxion leveraged and inverse ETFs, where available.
Refer to my earlier post for instructions on how to read/interpret the spreadsheet. Do let me know if you note any errors, or would like to see changes.
Thanks!
Ryan
Refer to my earlier post for instructions on how to read/interpret the spreadsheet. Do let me know if you note any errors, or would like to see changes.
Thanks!
Ryan
What happened to the Wall Street Journal's writing?
I'm catching up on news after a wonderful 4th of July. Evidently North Korea did launch several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan yesterday.
As distressing as this development is, I found myself even more distressed by some not-so-nuanced reporting in the Wall Street Journal on this story. In particular, this passage bothered me:
North Korea's leaders are able to push forward their weapons program because they show little regard for the impact of weapons-related economic penalties on the country's people. Moreover, they have South Korea and Japan pinned down militarily by hundreds of missiles and artillery rockets and they have China fearful that their ouster and resulting instability would send many North Koreans into northeastern Chinese provinces. (emphasis added)
As distressing as this development is, I found myself even more distressed by some not-so-nuanced reporting in the Wall Street Journal on this story. In particular, this passage bothered me:
North Korea's leaders are able to push forward their weapons program because they show little regard for the impact of weapons-related economic penalties on the country's people. Moreover, they have South Korea and Japan pinned down militarily by hundreds of missiles and artillery rockets and they have China fearful that their ouster and resulting instability would send many North Koreans into northeastern Chinese provinces. (emphasis added)
Sunday, June 21, 2009
How much of an impact is Twitter having in Iran?
This is a story about how I was caught gullible - twice.
Like everyone else who depends upon mass media for a fair amount of my news, I was a bit surprised that Twitter was arguably playing a significant role in the protests in Tehran over the recent presidential election. I mean, this is Twitter, whose model for communication opens itself up to breathtakingly easy parody, as Conan Seize-the-low-hanging-fruit O'Brien illustrates. (I love you Conebone.) Case closed... right?
Like everyone else who depends upon mass media for a fair amount of my news, I was a bit surprised that Twitter was arguably playing a significant role in the protests in Tehran over the recent presidential election. I mean, this is Twitter, whose model for communication opens itself up to breathtakingly easy parody, as Conan Seize-the-low-hanging-fruit O'Brien illustrates. (I love you Conebone.) Case closed... right?
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Calculated Risk analyzes the Rockefeller Foundation report on nosediving state income tax revenues
First and foremost, if you're not familiar with Calculated Risk, it is perhaps one of the most influential and highly regarded financial/economic blogs on the Web. Definitely recommend checking it regularly.
The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government issued a report on state income tax revenue available at their website (pdf). In case you want a preview, look no further than their title: "April is the Cruelest Month". (Confused? Click here. And start reading him before I have to stop being friends with you.)
The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government issued a report on state income tax revenue available at their website (pdf). In case you want a preview, look no further than their title: "April is the Cruelest Month". (Confused? Click here. And start reading him before I have to stop being friends with you.)
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Pablo Neruda, and the Election Protests in Iran
I'm not saying that Neruda is a voice that makes sense to use for the Mousavi supporters. The poem, like the situation unfolding in Tehran, is complex, and it would be dangerous to underestimate the complexity of either. So here is, what I hope, is a complex enough concatenation of these two forces that tells a story. Whose, I do not know, and all of us wait for the next chapters to be written.
The text is from "Tu Risa" ("Your Laughter") by Pablo Neruda. The photos and captions are of the election protests in Tehran, located at the Boston Globe website.
Your Laughter
The text is from "Tu Risa" ("Your Laughter") by Pablo Neruda. The photos and captions are of the election protests in Tehran, located at the Boston Globe website.
Your Laughter
Monday, June 15, 2009
Frank Rich on anger at Obama, and my comments in the context of this recession
NYTimes Op-Ed columnist Frank Rich: The Obama Haters' Silent Enablers
It's a great read - I usually find Frank Rich's columns worth a read, and often find myself in agreement.
The article says better than I ever could about the dangers of fomenting domestic terrorism, intentionally or not, by using the bully pulpit in such a way. Sometimes I think these pundits are cynically boosting their ratings. Sometimes I think they drink their own kool-aid.
It's a great read - I usually find Frank Rich's columns worth a read, and often find myself in agreement.
The article says better than I ever could about the dangers of fomenting domestic terrorism, intentionally or not, by using the bully pulpit in such a way. Sometimes I think these pundits are cynically boosting their ratings. Sometimes I think they drink their own kool-aid.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
All politics is local
International legitimacy matters less (or more) than you think, depending on your professional, personal, and sociohistoricultural background-induced biases.
It matters less than you think, if you think as most intellectuals do, viewing the system-wide interactions of the pilotless, rudderless international system.
Those who use Occam's razor to argue that there is no God would find a similar line of argument that concludes that belief in an "invisible hand" is likewise irrational.
Most of us don't give a flying flip about the international legitimacy. Those who care about it tremendously tend to be in self-imposed intellectual and cultural - if not physical - exile from their countrymen, depending upon some intangible and poorly quantifiable form of recognition and validation from abroad to confirm their superiority (real or imagined). It may also fend off whatever residual nationalism/tribalism that resides in the subconscious, that which whispers in the spaces of the night words like 'fifth column', 'Judas', 'Benedict Arnold', 'traitor to the race', etc.
It matters less than you think, if you think as most intellectuals do, viewing the system-wide interactions of the pilotless, rudderless international system.
Those who use Occam's razor to argue that there is no God would find a similar line of argument that concludes that belief in an "invisible hand" is likewise irrational.
Most of us don't give a flying flip about the international legitimacy. Those who care about it tremendously tend to be in self-imposed intellectual and cultural - if not physical - exile from their countrymen, depending upon some intangible and poorly quantifiable form of recognition and validation from abroad to confirm their superiority (real or imagined). It may also fend off whatever residual nationalism/tribalism that resides in the subconscious, that which whispers in the spaces of the night words like 'fifth column', 'Judas', 'Benedict Arnold', 'traitor to the race', etc.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
The virtues of church
I recently wrote three long-ish letters (not e-mails) to three old men at my church in Southern California. All of them are suffering from health problems of varying degrees. If you are so inclined, I'm sure that Jack, Kenji, and Jim would appreciate your prayers. This post is a product of the fond memories and thinking those notes catalyzed.
Sometimes I wish I could say that I'm a Christian because I felt that the Bible was the revealed word of God, or because, after a careful study of all religions and philosophies of life, that I found that this religion most closely aligned to my understanding of morality and justice. In all honesty, I was a Christian because I was born into a family that attended a Christian church - specifically, a United Church of Christ congregation.
Sometimes I wish I could say that I'm a Christian because I felt that the Bible was the revealed word of God, or because, after a careful study of all religions and philosophies of life, that I found that this religion most closely aligned to my understanding of morality and justice. In all honesty, I was a Christian because I was born into a family that attended a Christian church - specifically, a United Church of Christ congregation.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
A letter to Asian-Americans in California Regarding Proposition 8
Update 05/27/2009: Thanks to David Coyne for catching an error I made. I had stated that Asian-Americans were the only minority group to have voted as a majority for Proposition 8. This is false. According to a CNN exit poll, Asian-Americans were evenly split for and against Proposition 8, with a slight plurality voting no. The post has been edited to account for this.
That said, the post's intent and content remain valid; it is still troubling to me that a full 49% of Asian-Americans supported Proposition 8, given this history.
To my friends in California -
I heard about the Supreme Court ruling. And while it may have been consistent with expectations, I know it was not consistent with your hopes.
I am reminded of the many instances of separate but equal justice that California in particular, and nations in general, have visited upon their citizens.
That said, the post's intent and content remain valid; it is still troubling to me that a full 49% of Asian-Americans supported Proposition 8, given this history.
To my friends in California -
I heard about the Supreme Court ruling. And while it may have been consistent with expectations, I know it was not consistent with your hopes.
I am reminded of the many instances of separate but equal justice that California in particular, and nations in general, have visited upon their citizens.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Checking your spam folder yields some gems!
I've been expecting an important email from the National Academies regarding a fellowship application. In my paranoia, I decided to check my spam folder.
Beyond the usual "enhancement" emails, I found a particular gem. Nigerian scammers appear to be adapting. :)
Sadly, for them, while the strategy is right, the grammar is still almost nonsensical. Commas, anyone?
Beyond the usual "enhancement" emails, I found a particular gem. Nigerian scammers appear to be adapting. :)
Sadly, for them, while the strategy is right, the grammar is still almost nonsensical. Commas, anyone?
Sunday, May 17, 2009
spreadsheet for trading leveraged ETFs
UPDATE June 22: Spreadsheet now online via Google docs. However, the formulas are not saved. I should be updating it semi-regularly. Still, numbers updated as of today's close, and should be helpful for trading tomorrow.
I trade the Proshares and Direxion levered ETFs. The problems associated with levered ETFs have been well documented (see "The Case Against Levereaged ETFs" by Tristan Yates and Lye Kok, located on SeekingAlpha's website).
Of particular note, technical analysis on the levered ETFs is of limited value. The levered ETFs' value have a tendency to decay of the ETFs in volatile markets makes previous price levels useless.
I'm still learning Technical Analysis (TA), and I definitely advise that one keep in mind fundamentals when using TA. (It's a valuable sanity check, though I suppose we've been in insane markets for quite some time.)
I try to do TA on index ETFs in sectors I trade frequently (in particular, financials (XLF), energy (XLE), real estate (IYR), the SPY (large caps) and IWM (small caps).
I find it is helpful to map out price levels of potential support and resistance prior to a trading day, and update them with intraday levels/trends. To calculate entry/target/stop points for my trades using the leveraged ETFs, I decided to put together a spreadsheet that automatically calculates the prices of the levered ETFs based upon the underlying (index) ETF.
Note: the index ETFs I use are not necessarily the ones that most closely track the underlying assets. Usually I chose one that more or less tracked the sector, but was most heavily traded (liquid). Unfortunately, I haven't tested how effectively the Direxion Energy Bull (ERX) and Bear (ERY) ETFs track XLE; consequently, I'm not trading energy very much.
How to use the spreadsheet
(1) Create a portfolio of the ETFs listed on the first page in a Yahoo! portfolio. I enter the ticker "BREAK" to create spaces corresponding to spaces on the spreadsheet.
(2) After the close of a trading day, download stock quotes from Yahoo.
(3) Copy and paste the field highlighted on the first page. It should match up with the format Yahoo uses.
(4) (Optional for daily; recommended for weekly) Enter in the 200, 50, 20 simple daily moving averages, as well as the Bollinger bands (I use 20 day, 2 standard deviations). I have to do this manually using stockcharts; drop me a line if you know of a better way to get SMA numbers in a spreadsheet!
(5) For the sectors/markets of particular interest to you, I recommend adding additional price levels based on TA on the specific index ETF. Enter these numbers in the yellow boxes located on the page specific to the ETF of interest.
(6) Assuming I didn't botch the formulae, the key price levels, as well as pivots, and the corresponding levered ETF price, should be calculated in the gray box in the lower left of each sector/market sheet. I find it handy to enter in a description of what the price level corresponds to (support/resistance, hi/low/trend, as well as the time period over which it applies.) Copy and paste ONLY the values into the magenta area.
(7) Sort the data pasted in descending order of the first highlighted column (labeled by the unleveraged index ETF).
(8) You should now have an ordered set of price levels for the index, as well as the corresponding prices for the ETF.
Hope this helps. Please let me know if you've got any suggestions. I tried to make it as plug-and-chug as possible, while allowing for some customization with manually entered price levels.
NOTE: If you're interested in a copy, send me an email (ryan.yamada - at - gmail.com), and I'll be happy to email you a copy. Access to my website appears to be restricted; I'm contacting the sysadmin.
I trade the Proshares and Direxion levered ETFs. The problems associated with levered ETFs have been well documented (see "The Case Against Levereaged ETFs" by Tristan Yates and Lye Kok, located on SeekingAlpha's website).
Of particular note, technical analysis on the levered ETFs is of limited value. The levered ETFs' value have a tendency to decay of the ETFs in volatile markets makes previous price levels useless.
I'm still learning Technical Analysis (TA), and I definitely advise that one keep in mind fundamentals when using TA. (It's a valuable sanity check, though I suppose we've been in insane markets for quite some time.)
I try to do TA on index ETFs in sectors I trade frequently (in particular, financials (XLF), energy (XLE), real estate (IYR), the SPY (large caps) and IWM (small caps).
I find it is helpful to map out price levels of potential support and resistance prior to a trading day, and update them with intraday levels/trends. To calculate entry/target/stop points for my trades using the leveraged ETFs, I decided to put together a spreadsheet that automatically calculates the prices of the levered ETFs based upon the underlying (index) ETF.
Note: the index ETFs I use are not necessarily the ones that most closely track the underlying assets. Usually I chose one that more or less tracked the sector, but was most heavily traded (liquid). Unfortunately, I haven't tested how effectively the Direxion Energy Bull (ERX) and Bear (ERY) ETFs track XLE; consequently, I'm not trading energy very much.
How to use the spreadsheet
(1) Create a portfolio of the ETFs listed on the first page in a Yahoo! portfolio. I enter the ticker "BREAK" to create spaces corresponding to spaces on the spreadsheet.
(2) After the close of a trading day, download stock quotes from Yahoo.
(3) Copy and paste the field highlighted on the first page. It should match up with the format Yahoo uses.
(4) (Optional for daily; recommended for weekly) Enter in the 200, 50, 20 simple daily moving averages, as well as the Bollinger bands (I use 20 day, 2 standard deviations). I have to do this manually using stockcharts; drop me a line if you know of a better way to get SMA numbers in a spreadsheet!
(5) For the sectors/markets of particular interest to you, I recommend adding additional price levels based on TA on the specific index ETF. Enter these numbers in the yellow boxes located on the page specific to the ETF of interest.
(6) Assuming I didn't botch the formulae, the key price levels, as well as pivots, and the corresponding levered ETF price, should be calculated in the gray box in the lower left of each sector/market sheet. I find it handy to enter in a description of what the price level corresponds to (support/resistance, hi/low/trend, as well as the time period over which it applies.) Copy and paste ONLY the values into the magenta area.
(7) Sort the data pasted in descending order of the first highlighted column (labeled by the unleveraged index ETF).
(8) You should now have an ordered set of price levels for the index, as well as the corresponding prices for the ETF.
Hope this helps. Please let me know if you've got any suggestions. I tried to make it as plug-and-chug as possible, while allowing for some customization with manually entered price levels.
NOTE: If you're interested in a copy, send me an email (ryan.yamada - at - gmail.com), and I'll be happy to email you a copy. Access to my website appears to be restricted; I'm contacting the sysadmin.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Rules I use to avoid intellectual ossification
Never mistake being different with being right.
Never take criticism as evidence that you are right.
Reason through the logic using different sets of assumptions. Questioning someone's logic is not the same as questioning someone's assumptions.
Work to define the borders of areas of your competence, understanding, and experience. Work to expand those frontiers, but always redraw the map. Be wary of enclaves due to the passage of time, new research, or changing assumptions.
Never argue with someone who is unwilling to state or examine their assumptions; this typically leads to frustration, stress, and worst of all, deteriorating logic.
Wisdom is not equivalent to age. Nor is it a democracy.
Don't be afraid to make statements or take positions for the sake of practicing rhetorical devices, argument, or logic.
Do not drink your own kool-aid, unless it's really kool.
Will update later with more as I think of them. Additions are quite welcome.
Never take criticism as evidence that you are right.
Reason through the logic using different sets of assumptions. Questioning someone's logic is not the same as questioning someone's assumptions.
Work to define the borders of areas of your competence, understanding, and experience. Work to expand those frontiers, but always redraw the map. Be wary of enclaves due to the passage of time, new research, or changing assumptions.
Never argue with someone who is unwilling to state or examine their assumptions; this typically leads to frustration, stress, and worst of all, deteriorating logic.
Wisdom is not equivalent to age. Nor is it a democracy.
Don't be afraid to make statements or take positions for the sake of practicing rhetorical devices, argument, or logic.
Do not drink your own kool-aid, unless it's really kool.
Will update later with more as I think of them. Additions are quite welcome.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Distribution of Facebook Friend Request Confirmations after Stupidness
Abstract:
Due to my incompetence at Web2.0, I killed my access to my Cornell Facebook account. Being somewhat remiss at losing my friends, as well as borderline codependent, I decided to re-add my friends. The distribution of confirmations was interesting enough that I decided to do this mini-lab report. As it turns out, I have more Cornell FB friends on the West Coast than I thought, which meant that people were confirming well past what I would expect for Ithaca residents. I am utterly ashamed that I did this analysis.
Due to my incompetence at Web2.0, I killed my access to my Cornell Facebook account. Being somewhat remiss at losing my friends, as well as borderline codependent, I decided to re-add my friends. The distribution of confirmations was interesting enough that I decided to do this mini-lab report. As it turns out, I have more Cornell FB friends on the West Coast than I thought, which meant that people were confirming well past what I would expect for Ithaca residents. I am utterly ashamed that I did this analysis.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
What’s in a Name?
What’s in a Name? Weighing in on Texas State Rep. Betty Brown comments
I decided to write about the case involving Texas State Representative Betty Brown, (R-Terrell) (homepage), because I think it’s important to address events that might trigger emotional rather than nuanced reactions in as calm a manner as possible. There are way too many issues to take the eye off the ball and rant about a case which only serves to reinforce preexisting notions of an imagined “other”.
The Houston Chronicle reports that Rep. Brown made some controversial comments during a session of the House Elections Committee in response to testimony delivered by Ramey Ko, a representative of the Organization of Chinese Americans.
I decided to write about the case involving Texas State Representative Betty Brown, (R-Terrell) (homepage), because I think it’s important to address events that might trigger emotional rather than nuanced reactions in as calm a manner as possible. There are way too many issues to take the eye off the ball and rant about a case which only serves to reinforce preexisting notions of an imagined “other”.
The Houston Chronicle reports that Rep. Brown made some controversial comments during a session of the House Elections Committee in response to testimony delivered by Ramey Ko, a representative of the Organization of Chinese Americans.
Monday, March 16, 2009
The message, the motive, and the attribution
There are always at least three reasons given for why smart people do something: the reason they tell themselves; the reason they tell others; and the reason an external observer will infer by their words or actions. All of these are real, and have real effects - in essence, all are true.
If you count fewer than three, either you are analyzing someone thinking/behaving simply, or you are yourself thinking simply.
If you count fewer than three, either you are analyzing someone thinking/behaving simply, or you are yourself thinking simply.
AIG counterparties announced, bonuses revisited
UPDATED 3/16/2009:
The Financial Times reports AIG just announced that they have posted a list of their CDS counterparties (pdf). It's also available on the AIG website(pdf).
If my calcs are correct, here's the breakdown of where money went by region/country:
US - financial institutions: $31.5bn
US - state/municipal governments: $12.1bn
Eurozone: $37.9bn
UK: $12.7bn
Switzerland: $5.4bn
Canada: $1.1bn
Poland: $0.3bn
Not labeled: $4.1bn
Total: $105.3bn
I'm tired - I'll have to revisit these calculations later.
But this means that nearly 55% of the funds left the country.
Amazing. I thought the Eurozone banks were doing worse than our banks. They may still be, but this will definitely boost their capital.
Also courtesy of the FT; in a letter to the Treasury, CEO Liddy says that AIG targets a 30% reduction in 2009 bonuses by making use of "creative restructuring solutions". Additionally, he will propose further changes to the 2008 bonuses for Senior Partners. He cautions about a departure of top talent.
The Financial Times reports AIG just announced that they have posted a list of their CDS counterparties (pdf). It's also available on the AIG website(pdf).
If my calcs are correct, here's the breakdown of where money went by region/country:
US - financial institutions: $31.5bn
US - state/municipal governments: $12.1bn
Eurozone: $37.9bn
UK: $12.7bn
Switzerland: $5.4bn
Canada: $1.1bn
Poland: $0.3bn
Not labeled: $4.1bn
Total: $105.3bn
I'm tired - I'll have to revisit these calculations later.
But this means that nearly 55% of the funds left the country.
Amazing. I thought the Eurozone banks were doing worse than our banks. They may still be, but this will definitely boost their capital.
Also courtesy of the FT; in a letter to the Treasury, CEO Liddy says that AIG targets a 30% reduction in 2009 bonuses by making use of "creative restructuring solutions". Additionally, he will propose further changes to the 2008 bonuses for Senior Partners. He cautions about a departure of top talent.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
AIG to disclose counterparties
This is big news: AIG plans to disclose CDS counterparties.
I'm a bit uncertain as to the timing of it - maybe it has to do with Treasury's increased leverage (no pun intended) with the AIG board and executives. Geithner already ordered AIG to suspend its bonus payments for 2009, and will claw back bonus payments from 2008 (Bloomberg). Maybe it has to do with the Wall Street Journal receiving a leaked document with the identities of some of the counterparties, and how much they've received.
I'm a bit uncertain as to the timing of it - maybe it has to do with Treasury's increased leverage (no pun intended) with the AIG board and executives. Geithner already ordered AIG to suspend its bonus payments for 2009, and will claw back bonus payments from 2008 (Bloomberg). Maybe it has to do with the Wall Street Journal receiving a leaked document with the identities of some of the counterparties, and how much they've received.
Daily Show Interview with Jim Cramer
Ok, I'm going to blog about the Daily Show interview with Jim Cramer, because I hate to feel left out.
It was a great interview. But Jon Stewart didn't win. And Jim Cramer didn't lose.
We all lost, some time ago. And we continue to lose.
It was a great interview. But Jon Stewart didn't win. And Jim Cramer didn't lose.
We all lost, some time ago. And we continue to lose.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
blogs and expertise
(Comments are based on an email I sent out recently to COMM 566 alums at Cornell)
I came across a blog post on the Economist that might be germane to our class discussions on how to build and maintain a technical blog.
I came across a blog post on the Economist that might be germane to our class discussions on how to build and maintain a technical blog.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Two critically important blog posts
Read two essential blog posts about what's happening right now in the economy. Seriously - these two summarize critical points that you should have in mind should you discuss the economy in anything approaching a serious manner.
Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture writes a spot-on piece about the conceptual problem of mistaking confidence as a cause, rather than a symptom, of the macroeconomic degeneration.
Forget Confidence - Fix What's Broken First (The Big Picture)
One line summary: "Fix whats broken, namely the financial system. When that’s repaired, confidence will improve."
Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker skewers the leadership on tehir treatment of the financial crisis and offers a list of what needs to happen to restore the "confidence" (and, keeping Ritholtz's point in mind, by "confidence", Denninger really means transparency and effective law enforcement.)
It is a very angry and correct prescription.
Hello Mr. President; How 'Ya Like This? (The Market Ticker)
In summary, he recommends the following dramatic steps:
- eliminate CDS market
- send FBI after everyone involved in CDS embezzlement
- reinstate Glass-Steagall
- force the Fed to comply w/Bloomberg's Freedom of Information Act request/lawsuit and disclose who is receiving funds from the various lending facilities, and what assets are being taken as collateral
- eliminate a ton of FHA programs that incentivize fraud, and go after the fraudsters.
- force every company trading on a public exchange in the US to produce a consolidated balance sheet and financials - no more off-balance sheet stuff
To that list, I might add organized bankruptcy for a few problem financial instituions and large corporations (Citigroup and GM). Safeguarding bondholders is going to take more money than God or the US Treasury can raise. Keep in mind that unlike previous debt-related financial crises around the world, the majority of US debt is private, not public.
Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture writes a spot-on piece about the conceptual problem of mistaking confidence as a cause, rather than a symptom, of the macroeconomic degeneration.
Forget Confidence - Fix What's Broken First (The Big Picture)
One line summary: "Fix whats broken, namely the financial system. When that’s repaired, confidence will improve."
Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker skewers the leadership on tehir treatment of the financial crisis and offers a list of what needs to happen to restore the "confidence" (and, keeping Ritholtz's point in mind, by "confidence", Denninger really means transparency and effective law enforcement.)
It is a very angry and correct prescription.
Hello Mr. President; How 'Ya Like This? (The Market Ticker)
In summary, he recommends the following dramatic steps:
- eliminate CDS market
- send FBI after everyone involved in CDS embezzlement
- reinstate Glass-Steagall
- force the Fed to comply w/Bloomberg's Freedom of Information Act request/lawsuit and disclose who is receiving funds from the various lending facilities, and what assets are being taken as collateral
- eliminate a ton of FHA programs that incentivize fraud, and go after the fraudsters.
- force every company trading on a public exchange in the US to produce a consolidated balance sheet and financials - no more off-balance sheet stuff
To that list, I might add organized bankruptcy for a few problem financial instituions and large corporations (Citigroup and GM). Safeguarding bondholders is going to take more money than God or the US Treasury can raise. Keep in mind that unlike previous debt-related financial crises around the world, the majority of US debt is private, not public.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
500,000 lawyers versus 500,000 engineers
Last hope, last stand: China's petitioners find a system under strain (Financial Times)
A fascinating set of videos taken by the FT of Chinese citizens petitioning the central government for justice.
Neil DeGrasse Tyson once pointed out that the US graduates 500,000 lawyers a year, while China graduates 500,000 engineers each year. Looking at the Chinese judicial system, one wonders whether our apportionment of social resources is really all that bad.
A fascinating set of videos taken by the FT of Chinese citizens petitioning the central government for justice.
Neil DeGrasse Tyson once pointed out that the US graduates 500,000 lawyers a year, while China graduates 500,000 engineers each year. Looking at the Chinese judicial system, one wonders whether our apportionment of social resources is really all that bad.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Kepler will find Earth-like planets
Comments - To the Sun-like stars: Life beyond Earth (Financial Times)
To be fair, Kepler is doing a photometric study. It won't be able to use the light of these incredibly dim (relative to their parent star) planets to look for oxygen, the clue that life exists on that world. But it will hopefully achieve the 10^7 contrast ratio for Sun-like stars in the near-infrared (or 10^10 in the visible) needed to identify a planet around a star.
Disclosure: In case you didn't know, I used to work on ground-based detection of low-mass companions to M-dwarfs in the near-Infrared at Palomar. Not nearly as glamorous, but I did find about ten new stars.
Glad to see astro made it in the financial pages. :)
To be fair, Kepler is doing a photometric study. It won't be able to use the light of these incredibly dim (relative to their parent star) planets to look for oxygen, the clue that life exists on that world. But it will hopefully achieve the 10^7 contrast ratio for Sun-like stars in the near-infrared (or 10^10 in the visible) needed to identify a planet around a star.
Disclosure: In case you didn't know, I used to work on ground-based detection of low-mass companions to M-dwarfs in the near-Infrared at Palomar. Not nearly as glamorous, but I did find about ten new stars.
Glad to see astro made it in the financial pages. :)
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
American brain drain
Why Skilled Immigrants Are Leaving the U.S. (Businessweek)
It's an interesting shift, one that started to happen after September 11 made the visa process hell. Also possibly contributing was the use of a full one-third of H-1B Visas to train employees to return to their home country (outsourcing).
I expect to see a similar study ten years from now showing that the US has permanently lost its dominance in higher education. It may not be reversible, or even undesirable, but it does have implications for the recovery and future growth.
It's an interesting shift, one that started to happen after September 11 made the visa process hell. Also possibly contributing was the use of a full one-third of H-1B Visas to train employees to return to their home country (outsourcing).
I expect to see a similar study ten years from now showing that the US has permanently lost its dominance in higher education. It may not be reversible, or even undesirable, but it does have implications for the recovery and future growth.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Size of social networks on FB and in life
The Size of Social Networks: Primates on Facebook (Economist)
Great article on the Economist about the Dunbar number, which sets a rough limit on the number of social connections we humans tend to have. Also fascinating is that the number of intimate social friends we have (~7-10) has been on the decline. Need to read Bowling Alone at some point.
Great article on the Economist about the Dunbar number, which sets a rough limit on the number of social connections we humans tend to have. Also fascinating is that the number of intimate social friends we have (~7-10) has been on the decline. Need to read Bowling Alone at some point.
RIght-wing Koch family may have sponsored Santelli's "spontaneous" populist rant
Backstabber: Is Rick Santelli High on Koch
Interesting - Playboy does investigative reporting? Seriously, evidence emerging that Santelli's rant was pre-planned and funded by the Koch family in an effort to undermine the Obama administration.
Reminds me of the VP debate, when Biden says he learned as a young legislator that questioning the motives of his colleagues was offensive and counterproductive, but questioning their judgment was always legitimate and absolutely necessary. Here may be a case when the judgment is legitimate, but the motives are more complex.
Update: The Atlantic Business Channel takes apart the article, and has a copy of the text (now removed from Playboy's website). Looks like there might be concern about libel charges. Still not sure if Santelli is innocent or not - what is clear is that it probably was premeditated at the very least with his contract renewal in mind.
Interesting - Playboy does investigative reporting? Seriously, evidence emerging that Santelli's rant was pre-planned and funded by the Koch family in an effort to undermine the Obama administration.
Reminds me of the VP debate, when Biden says he learned as a young legislator that questioning the motives of his colleagues was offensive and counterproductive, but questioning their judgment was always legitimate and absolutely necessary. Here may be a case when the judgment is legitimate, but the motives are more complex.
Update: The Atlantic Business Channel takes apart the article, and has a copy of the text (now removed from Playboy's website). Looks like there might be concern about libel charges. Still not sure if Santelli is innocent or not - what is clear is that it probably was premeditated at the very least with his contract renewal in mind.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Death of a Salesman, 2009
For some reason, I started to think about Death of a Salesman, by Arthur Miller. I came across that play in my junior year of high school. For whatever reason, it has remained the single piece of American literature that comes to mind - more than Huck Finn, more than To Kill a Mockingbird.
I remember watching Brian Dennehy play Willy Loman in a production in L.A. I'd bought tickets for my Mom as a gift. I was a little disappointed that she fell asleep during one of the Act One monologues, and even began snoring quietly. I'm glad she joined me in any case.
I remember watching Brian Dennehy play Willy Loman in a production in L.A. I'd bought tickets for my Mom as a gift. I was a little disappointed that she fell asleep during one of the Act One monologues, and even began snoring quietly. I'm glad she joined me in any case.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Robert Ballard trash talks NASA
Robert Ballard on Colbert Report
I love Robert Ballard. I grew up with his books on the Titanic, the Bismarck, and the Isis. I must have read the first two about 80 times each.
I also have a friend working for Bob Ballard in Rhode Island on underwater archaeology.
So I was unpleasantly surprised when I saw him trash talk NASA on the Colbert Report on Feb 10, 2009.
Admittedly, he makes a lot of good points. Because of maritime law, which guarantees countries owning habitable land exclusive economic zones (EEZs) 200 miles offshore, there is a lot of real estate that the US knows precious little about.
But why make NASA your whipping boy? And why attribute it to quasi-religious needs to become closer to God than historical/economic reasons stemming from the Cold War and the importance of satellite systems to the modern economy?
On a side note, in a conversation I had with a member of the National Academy of Sciences staff, he said that astronomers are the whiniest constituency of scientists fighting for NSF budgets. Maybe Ballard knows something I don't.
I love Robert Ballard. I grew up with his books on the Titanic, the Bismarck, and the Isis. I must have read the first two about 80 times each.
I also have a friend working for Bob Ballard in Rhode Island on underwater archaeology.
So I was unpleasantly surprised when I saw him trash talk NASA on the Colbert Report on Feb 10, 2009.
Admittedly, he makes a lot of good points. Because of maritime law, which guarantees countries owning habitable land exclusive economic zones (EEZs) 200 miles offshore, there is a lot of real estate that the US knows precious little about.
But why make NASA your whipping boy? And why attribute it to quasi-religious needs to become closer to God than historical/economic reasons stemming from the Cold War and the importance of satellite systems to the modern economy?
On a side note, in a conversation I had with a member of the National Academy of Sciences staff, he said that astronomers are the whiniest constituency of scientists fighting for NSF budgets. Maybe Ballard knows something I don't.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Monday, February 9, 2009
Senate votes to invoke cloture on stimulus bill
In case you hadn't heard, the Senate passed a cloture motion on S.Amdt.570, the Senate Amendment to H.R.1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (stimulus bill).
Senate Vote count:
61 yea
26 nay
2 not voting
Party line (Dems and Independents voting Yea, GOP voting Nay, with following exceptions:
Collins (R-ME) Yea
Cornyn (R-TX) Not voting
Gregg (R-NH) Not voting * Note - this is Obama's pic for Secretary of Commerce!
Snowe (R-ME) Yea
Specter (R-Me) Yea
Note that the Senate will vote on the bill proper sometime Tuesday.
Senate Vote count:
61 yea
26 nay
2 not voting
Party line (Dems and Independents voting Yea, GOP voting Nay, with following exceptions:
Collins (R-ME) Yea
Cornyn (R-TX) Not voting
Gregg (R-NH) Not voting * Note - this is Obama's pic for Secretary of Commerce!
Snowe (R-ME) Yea
Specter (R-Me) Yea
Note that the Senate will vote on the bill proper sometime Tuesday.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
TARP Funds in Hand
Uncle Sam!
Uncle Sam!
That Uncle Sam!
That Uncle Sam!
I do not like that Uncle Sam!
Do you like TARP funds in hand?
I do not like them, Uncle Sam.
I do not like TARP funds in hand.
Uncle Sam!
That Uncle Sam!
That Uncle Sam!
I do not like that Uncle Sam!
Do you like TARP funds in hand?
I do not like them, Uncle Sam.
I do not like TARP funds in hand.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Why we will be disappointed in Obama, and why we should not despair
This is Part 2 of a post on the removal of the Family Planning provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill of 2009. You can read part 1 here.
A lot of my friends will probably be dismayed that I sympathize with the choice to remove that particular provision from the Act. As I mentioned in Part 1, I am happy to discuss it, and reserve the right, as an intelligent, honest adult to change my views when presented with another, more durable position and argument.
But I wanted to tackle a broader issue in this post.
A lot of my friends will probably be dismayed that I sympathize with the choice to remove that particular provision from the Act. As I mentioned in Part 1, I am happy to discuss it, and reserve the right, as an intelligent, honest adult to change my views when presented with another, more durable position and argument.
But I wanted to tackle a broader issue in this post.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
On the State Option to Cover Family Planning Services (American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill of 2009)
I decided to write this in response to a note that a close friend had up about the House Democrats removing a provision in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill of 2009 from the Act of the same name (ARRA). (ARRA passed a House vote today.) While I think that particular section is necessary, I understand the reason for its removal. I hope it will be redrafted in another bill and passed as law soon. Note that this post is in favor of the specific part of the legislation dealing with family planning.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Thoughts on Inauguration, Part 1
This is Part One of a three-part series on Barack Obama's Inaugural Address.
In Part Two, I will examine Obama's Inaugural Address as a piece of rhetoric. And finally, in Part Three, I'll actually share what it means to me, and where I think we go from here.
In an attempt to formulate my thoughts about Barack Obama's Inaugural Address, I started looking at other significant speeches made by Americans. I was curious what words he used the most, and how that compared with these other speeches. Fortunately, I rediscovered wordle, a wonderful little Java applet that converts blocks of text into beautiful images, where the size of the word corresponds to its frequency. It also edits out very common words, which helps avoid a dramatic and useless "the" surrounded by other, lesser words.
In Part Two, I will examine Obama's Inaugural Address as a piece of rhetoric. And finally, in Part Three, I'll actually share what it means to me, and where I think we go from here.
In an attempt to formulate my thoughts about Barack Obama's Inaugural Address, I started looking at other significant speeches made by Americans. I was curious what words he used the most, and how that compared with these other speeches. Fortunately, I rediscovered wordle, a wonderful little Java applet that converts blocks of text into beautiful images, where the size of the word corresponds to its frequency. It also edits out very common words, which helps avoid a dramatic and useless "the" surrounded by other, lesser words.
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