Thursday, September 6, 2012

The Real Empty Chair


By now, Clint Eastwood's "Empty Chair" speech has become a legend.

But in searching for "empty chair" images, I came across an interesting sculpture.


It's called "The Empty Chair". Amnesty International commissioned artist Maarten Baas to make this sculpture in honor of Liu Xiaobo, the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate.

It commemorates his absence at the awards ceremony. Neither Liu nor any members of his family were able to attend because he is currently being held by the Chinese government for "incitement to the overthrow of the state power and socialist system and the people’s democratic dictatorship." He is serving an 11 year sentence.

Liu was represented by an empty chair.



The last recipient who went unrepresented was Carl von Ossietsky in 1935. He was unable to attend because he was incarcerated in one of Hitler's concentration camps.

Liu was unable to even present a speech in absentia

Instead, Norwegian actress Liv Ullmann recited his "Final Statement", authored in 2009 just prior to the start of his 11-year sentence.

It is an eloquent statement, gracious to the government and the people responsible for his detention. I wonder whether the naming of specific people was deliberate in the attention it focused on certain individuals. But the overall tone is one of personal resignation coupled with quiet confidence in China's ability to evolve into a truly humane and great nation. It is worth reading in its entirety.

Perhaps the most poignant part is when he talks about his wife. Somehow, it reminds me of "Tu Risa", by Pablo Neruda. Even through translation, one can tell he is a poet:

Ask me what has been my most fortunate experience of the past two decades, and I’d say it was gaining the selfless love of my wife, Liu Xia. She cannot be present in the courtroom today, but I still want to tell you, sweetheart, that I’m confident that your love for me will be as always. Over the years, in my non-free life, our love has contained bitterness imposed by the external environment, but is boundless in afterthought. I am sentenced to a visible prison while you are waiting in an invisible one. Your love is sunlight that transcends prison walls and bars, stroking every inch of my skin, warming my every cell, letting me maintain my inner calm, magnanimous and bright, so that every minute in prison is full of meaning. But my love for you is full of guilt and regret, sometimes heavy enough hobble my steps. I am a hard stone in the wilderness, putting up with the pummeling of raging storms, and too cold for anyone to dare touch. But my love is hard, sharp, and can penetrate any obstacles. Even if I am crushed into powder, I will embrace you with the ashes.

Given your love, sweetheart, I would face my forthcoming trial calmly, with no regrets about my choice and looking forward to tomorrow optimistically. I look forward to my country being a land of free expression, where all citizens’ speeches are treated the same; here, different values, ideas, beliefs, political views… both compete with each other and coexist peacefully; here, majority and minority opinions will be given equal guarantees, in particular, political views different from those in power will be fully respected and protected; here, all political views will be spread in the sunlight for the people to choose; all citizens will be able to express their political views without fear, and will never be politically persecuted for voicing dissent; I hope to be the last victim of China’s endless literary inquisition, and that after this no one else will ever be jailed for their speech.


This election season, we are, predictably, intensely focused inward. The election will likely not hinge upon foreign policy, and perhaps it should not. But it would be a tragedy for the idiom of the "empty chair", representing one man's struggle -- one generation's struggle -- for freedoms we take for granted to be defined by twelve minutes of Eastwood on a stage.

Throwing in the towel and trying to believe in God


Couldn't sleep. Tried being angry at certain friends for trying to check me into a mental hospital three months ago (a long story, perhaps worth writing at some point), then tried forgiving. Tried reading and watching comedy. Tried paranoia, and video games, and eating ice cream. The long and short of it is that, at this point, I've decided to throw in the towel. Against the vestiges of what remains of my judgment, and even against part of what remains of my principles, I'm going to try to believe in God. Sorta.

I wish I could say it's because I have faith. I have none. I know enough religious history to see the flaws in basing one's beliefs on a text written two thousand years ago that was definitely a product of its time and place. Probably will have to throw out Leviticus completely, and possibly most of the Old Testament. I'd probably be a Unitarian if I hadn't found the service structure in Ithaca so bizarre.

But I know I've got to believe in something beyond myself. 

No, it's because of exhaustion. Sheer, utter exhaustion about my current life. Mom has worn me down with her mysticism/spiritualism. Besides, too many atheists I know are a bit too self-righteous about their lack of faith.

I think a key difference is that they have a greater sense of control over their own destiny and future than I do. I'm pretty helpless right now; I don't have confidence in my sanity or my ability to do anything non-destructive. Consequently, it doesn't really make a difference to me whether an all-powerful entity is making me experience what in my mind is Job-lite suffering, or if it's a matter of brain chemistry, collapsing wavefunctions, and psychohistory.

Part of it is that I hate the part of myself that placed a barrier between me and a couple of my cousins. Though we have very different views on homosexuality, Biblical literalism, and politics, they've always been there for me in ways others haven't been. They've demonstrated courage and character in their own lives, and been excellent fathers. In case you haven't noticed, father issues are kind of a big deal for me.

I sometimes misinterpreted their kindness as a desire to convert, and not genuine love and affection for their youngest cousin. It's more telling of my own problems trusting people that I took it that way, and I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Lance and Warren, for judging you less on your relationships with me and more by what you called yourselves.

I don't plan on adpoting that anti-gay nonsense. Believe me, I seriously considered "coming out" to my family just to try and trigger some thought. But it's just not in me (pun intended). Besides, I know some great gay guys who have been tremendous emotional supports. One guy lives in Germany, and yet took the time - on his birthday - to write a lengthy, heartfelt note to me, expressing concern about what I've gone through with my dad and my recent life struggles.

And no bullshit socioeconomics couched in religious determinism. Really, from what little I know of Satanism, it is philosophically similar to Objectivism.

But I am cutting back on the politics. Honestly, I'm no good to anyone while I'm struggling with depression, joblessness, and generalized despair.

I've felt that it's a bit selfish and weak to try belief simply because life is going poorly. But I suppose that's me being judgmental. Things are going poorly enough that maybe I don't have the luxury of waiting for genuine faith.

I also wonder whether I would have reached this point had I a better natural support network - more accurately, if I were better able to reach out and make and keep friends I trusted. Church can seen to be a bit lazier in that regard. But so are filters on OkCupid, or anything other than completely random encounters. I'm presently isolated from all pre-fab communities, and the church is one I'm most familiar with. I don't know if, or when, it will translate into attendance - my own shame is a barrier.

Finally, I know that faith isn't at its best when taken a la carte. Will I be forced to swallow Leviticus as the price for embracing the Parable of the Sower? Can I reconcile the sometimes atheistic existentialist nature of Ecclesiastes with the rest of the Bible? These lack of consistencies, either within the Bible or with my own sense of morality, once led me away from belief, and it may do so again.

But I know, as do most of you, that one of my weaknesses is thinking too much about the wrong things, or without resolution. Analysis without action.

I don't know if this very reluctant plod toward belief will stick, or make a difference. But what the hell. It's possibly this or shoot myself, and while some might prefer the latter, I'm a bit too cowardly to attempt that yet.

Friday, August 31, 2012

Economy Booms Thanks to Clint Eastwood's Chair

BY EMA NYMTON

--Omaha, Nebraska


Happy times are here again.

Overnight, the economy has definitively exited recession and unemployment has dropped to levels not seen since the 1990s. Real GDP is predicted to grow by an Eisenhower-era 11% this year. The Dow rallied 600 points yesterday.

And it's all due to a man and a chair.

Clint Eastwood at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. Chair sales have skyrocketed, and Eastwood is now seen as a leading candidate for President.


"Clint Eastwood has saved this country," says Heddy Marshall, manager of the Nebraska Furniture Mart, the largest home furnishing store in the United States. "It's a miracle. Everyone wants Clint's chair. I've hired a thousand people today to help with the backlog, and may hire a thousand more tomorrow."

The chair in question is the Anderson model Featherweight Mark II, the "Grover Cleveland".

Eastwood's speech at the Republican National Convention on Thursday was criticized by many as being confusing, cranky, and inappropriately suggestive of a French existentialist play. But those critics are largely silent today, as the famed Hollywood actor and director has orchestrated what politicians from either party have struggled to do for the last four years.

Some are even trying to draft Eastwood into the presidential race.

"A man with a plan to support your can" bumper stickers, honoring Eastwood's contributions, have been selling like hotcakes. Demand was so strong that the Internet went down briefly, leading to a few tense moments in which the Pentagon believed it was an attack Chinese hackers.

"We almost bombed the shit outta them," Gen. Buck Turgidson, deputy commander of Strategic Air Command, said to reporters early Friday. "Good thing we didn't, because we're gonna need their factories to  build these goddamn chairs."

Not everyone is completely happy about the miraculous recovery in America's fortunes, however.

Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney had been campaigning on economic issues. Now facing a strong economy, has been meeting with senior advisers and the leaders of the financial industry. Sources say they are discussing whether a new financial crisis could be created by securitizing chairs.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Thinking about possible reasons for Mitt Romney to not release his tax returns

A thought experiment: imagine you're Mitt Romney. Why might you choose to not release your tax returns prior to 2010?

First, I want to address the matter of principle. I suppose any man, especially a wealthy man, might be loath to release his tax records. They can reveal a great deal about a person - their donations, their assets, the type and manner of income, and the various deductions. It is entirely possible that everything done was legal, and, moreover, ethical.

But it's too simplistic. And as we know from Lance Armstrong's "no contest" position on doping, in the matter of public opinion, one really is guilty until proven innocent. So, again, acknowledging the possibility that there is nothing either legally or morally wrong with any of Romney's tax records, I'm going to speculate on what might be wrong.

As a starting point, consider the time frame involved. Harry Reid, in either a moment of partisan inspiration or particularly psychotic gaffe, claimed that Romney hasn't paid taxes in the last ten years. Further, note that the Obama administration offered a deal to Romney: show us five years of returns, and we'll drop it.

To clarify, I'm assuming that the appropriate time frames are 2001-2011 and 2007-2011, give or take a year, as I'm not clear whether the released 2010 return and 2011 estimated tax are counted.

The five-year time period is particularly intriguing. Whatever happened in 2001-2006, it wasn't nearly as interesting as what happened in 2007-2011. In other words, his income from his time at Bain Capital is not the issue.

So what happened during 2001-2006? A tech bubble burst, and a recovery, accompanied by an even greater bubble in real estate. Though perhaps not relevant, I'll mention that 9/11, the Iraq War, and Katrina fall into this time period.

What happened in 2007-2011? A massive crash and recession brought about by a collapse in the real estate and credit markets, and only the beginnings of a recovery.

But there are other things that occurred during the last five years.

1. California Proposition 8

Prop 8 sought to overturn gay marriage in California. It passed by a pretty narrow margin, and was heavily funded by out-of-state organizations, including conservative religious institutions like the Church of Latter-Day Saints.

2. Repeal of long-term and reduction of short-term capital gains taxes

I remember that, at least for 2008 (and possibly other years), the long-term capital gains tax was eliminated. For example, this means any American taxpayer could sell stock held for at least one year and not pay any taxes on the gain. I know this is true because I took advantage of it myself. The short-term capital gains tax, while not zero, was reduced to 15%.

Could these be relevant?

Perhaps.

Warning: I'm going to engage in tax hypothetical situations

Let's assume Harry Reid isn't ridiculously off-base with his claim. How could this be true? Maybe it could be done if Romney realized massive amounts of short-term losses in 2001-2002, then carried forward those losses to offset short-term gains in the future. (This can be done, if I recall, for three years.) So, depending on how badly Romney's assets took a hit during the tech bubble crash, he could have paid no taxes at all during 2001-2005.

However, he could also have known, as I'm sure many senior Republicans (and Democrats) were aware, that Bush would push through a tax cut that would lead to the abolition of long-term capital gains. And so, being savvy, he might have held stocks from after the tech bubble crash to some point in 2008, hopefully, for his sake, before the financial crisis. He could have realized large gains (60-70% is not unreasonable, given the performance of the S&P500 during that period) and not had to pay any taxes on those gains.

Of course, any ordinary income could continue to be taxed at his rate. And I don't know if short-term capital losses can offset ordinary income; consequently, it's pretty unlikely he paid no taxes whatsoever. (I would be amused, but surprised, if the Romneys had large amounts of heavily subsidized farmland.)

All of this would, of course, be perfectly legal and legitimate, and not have to make use of offshore accounts. Of course, adding that feature, and one could probably pull a tax rate in the single digits. And it would make Romney's son's comment, "He's paid his taxes", true, though perhaps unsatisfying in its completeness.

Finally, there is one other intriguing possibility: Romney shorted the market during the financial crisis. I think this is compelling, in part, because of his connections and financial sophistication. If he had invested with John Paulson, for instance, he would have made a massive amount in 2008. These hypothetical gains probably wouldn't have been tax-free - it'd be pretty impressive for someone to have been short the market for an entire year - but then again hedge funds do strive for tax efficiency.

Of course, this all assumes Romney got the market right. What if he got it wrong? Could it be embarrassing to reveal that he's a lot less rich than people think? that he, like the rest of us, got hoodwinked in 2001, and again in 2008? His advantage over Obama is supposed to be his business/executive experience.

The financial aspects are more compelling than the possibly massive donation to Prop 8. Quite frankly, I doubt being strongly anti-gay would hurt him all that much. As much as my gay friends have griped about Obama, not a single one that I know of will be voting for Romney in November.

All of this is idle speculation, however, and I don't have the energy or inclination to really investigate it. Presumably someone has. But I decided to engage in some thought experiments before I went digging, assuming I ever get around to it.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

I deserve an orgy today! (And so do you!)




*Updated 8/23/2012, 12:36 PM
**Updated 8/23/2012, 12:47 PM

At first glance, it appears to be an Civony/Evony ad. (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, read the wiki section on its advertising campaign.)

I was going to post it in the folder “the Internets make me laugh”. But, for purely scholastic reasons, I decided to investigate further. Evidently Wartune is made by R2games, a company based out of Hong Kong specializing in online micropayment games.

This immediately piqued my interest – why, precisely, would a Chinese firm choose the path of appealing to our prurient public performance proclivities?

Perhaps this was a subtle form of Communist propaganda. After all, in the truest form of Communism, individualism is seen as antiquated and selfish; rather, the individual belongs to each other. (Note that I am referencing Marx’s form of Communism, in which the terminus of historical evolution results in the withering of the state, and not its more historical totalitarian manifestations.) In such a utopia, the individual’s body doesn't truly belong to the self, but to everyone.

 If so, this insidious form of brainwashing is an outrage, and has no place on sites accessible in America, and warrants the formation of a national firewall. How else can we safeguard our liberty and proud tradition of sexual repression than by employing a national internet censor?

 But just as I was about to call my congresswoman, another thought occurred to me. On the contrary, it might in fact a subtle critique of the Communist party. Historically, and across cultural bounds, totalitarian Communism has been characterized by strong restrictions on individual conduct, going as far as to enforce a moral code. What better way to protest than with public displays of affection – already censured near areas like the Forbidden Palace? *insert picture here of two women making out at said location behind the back of a guard*

Would Tank Man have been more effective if, instead of shopping bags, he had been holding the ample bosoms of fellow protesters? The tank driver might have joined them, and history as we know it would be different.

Yet perhaps I am being too pedestrian, and not giving enough credence to a more universal message. Could it be that the game company is trying to encourage the individual to achieve self-actualization?

Shouldn't we seek to unshackle ourselves from societal norms that reinforce negative self-image, borne in a desire to control population and social mobility, a desire made impotent by the availability of inexpensive prophylactics and topical creams?

 How much misery have we visited on ourselves, and upon other people, by denying the universal and natural desire to have sex with hundreds of people in a public place?

This, THIS explanation was the most satisfying. And it was then that I resolved to be part of the vanguard of this revolution. I have shed my clothes, and my cloak of shame, and am prepared to frolic in the streets, bringing to others, and myself, the emancipation of self.

And I owe it all to an advertisement.

I deserve an orgy TODAY. And so do you, dear reader. So do you. So let's go forth and orgiate.

As Mr. Rogers once said, “It's time for make-believe with Mr. McFeely.”


*Evidently I'm a bit too forward thinking for the LA County Sheriff's Deputies. Would someone please bring a $10,000 bail bond to the local jailhouse?

**Yes, I used my one phone call to update my blog. Besides, I found something that might invalidate my previous analysis. This was also on the R2games site.

Maybe a subsequent analysis will explore the orgy connection with resurgent right-wing extremism in Northern Europe. Perhaps I'll ask the nice Nordic gentleman that shares a cell with me.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Preliminary lessons from No Ordinary Time

I have finally finished No Ordinary Time: Franklin & Eleanor Roosevelt: The Home Front in World War II. It was a great read, filled with amusing stories as well as gripping drama. The book is too long and too interesting for me to feel comfortable summarizing it. However, it's also too important for me to not at least try to capture a bit of the lessons learned.

1. A mask of charm is both an invaluable political tool and incredibly hollowing. Both FDR and Reagan had a charm that seemed effortless. But both had been characterized by those closest to them as individuals for whom there remained a wide gulf between their essential self and the outside world. That gulf could not be bridged even by those closest to them. It seems a hard way to live, but I suppose being President is not easy.

I can't speak for Reagan, but FDR's pattern of charm and distance was established well before he contracted polio. It appears to stem from the early death of his father, his demanding (even domineering) mother, his status as a sheltered only child, and perhaps his social difficulties at Harvard.

I have been told by those somewhat close to me that they are surprised when I am honest with them about my past, about my feelings, and about my despair. Evidently I also use charm as a way of distancing myself, although obviously with considerably less facility than FDR.

2. It is important to have both a hammer and an anvil to effect social change. The anvil is sedentary and patient. The anvil waits for things to come to it. The hammer is impatient, restless, relentless. The hammer seeks to achieve through sheer determination a changed world. But the anvil knows that, with the hammer's help, good things will ultimately be forged.

Eleanor Roosevelt could accurately be characterized as a battleaxe, but for this analogy, she is the hammer. For her own personal reasons, and personal tragedies, she had a restless, relentless drive. This often led to a lack of focus - and in the case of Japanese-American internment, perhaps a critical level of diffusion that prevented an eleventh hour rescue from internment. But she was incredibly consistent, and very aggressive about pushing everyone, especially her husband, for change.

FDR, on the other hand, was a careful student of polls, and often moved very slowly on issues of social justice, economic restructuring, or other policy changes he knew were not widely supported. It is perhaps his genius, as well as a stain on his legacy, that he did not lead on issues of African-American rights, labor's struggle with crony capitalism, or war mobilization.

But it is fair to say that he depended upon Eleanor as a way of saying and doing things he could not, by virtue of his twin handicaps - one physical, and one vocational. Often, the President can't lead, and it's not because he lacks courage. It is because, by coming from the President, things that should be broadly supported, or self-evident in their justice, become immediately contentious. Recent history illustrates this.

It's also fair to say that Eleanor alone could not have done what she did without FDR's backing. Even though he was called upon repeatedly to rein her in, he refused. FDR trained Eleanor to really investigate things - to ask specific and incisive questions, to observe and remember. His gifts of memory are legendary; what I did not know was how he literally taught and trained his wife to become such a keen judge of organizations and individual character.

It's worth noting that they were aided tremendously by a press that regulated itself regarding the president, his wife, and the president's relationship with women. This probably will never be possible again - the press was, by and large, very deferential to the office and to the man. Even as his powers were failing in his fourth term, the press, his staff, and even members of Congress would do their best to conceal his lapses.

Eleanor also benefited by having a weekly column. She got plenty of hate mail over it, especially from the South over her support of African-American civil rights. Still, I wonder whether any first lady would, or could, write a weekly column appearing in newspapers across the nation, and the extent to which that could be a bully pulpit for change.

Catt needed Paul in Women's Suffrage. King needed X in Civil Rights. FDR needed Eleanor to preserve the home front, even as foreign affairs consumed him.

3. The story of race relations is intimately tied to the story of the American labor movement. I did not realize how little I knew about American Labor, nor about its role in the advancement of African-Americans. Even with the existential threat of world war, the fight for manufacturing jobs and combat roles for blacks was a brutal one. Perhaps less dramatically violent, but equally powerful, was the struggle to allow women to do factory work. Eleanor later realized that the war did more for the poor and the oppressed than the New Deal ever did, or perhaps could.

This period saw the increased militancy of African-American groups and American labor, including some incredibly unpopular mine strikes during the war. Fortunately for everyone, they were resolved more or less peacefully, with the president exercising some wisdom on the matter (of course supported by Eleanor's field reports).

4. Great individuals often depend upon several people to give them what they need to be great. FDR fed voraciously among various men and women for social company and relaxation. It wasn't parasitic, but it was a very aggressive symbiosis that often threatened the ability of others to enjoy basic levels of independence. Few gave more to the President than Harry Hopkins, but Roosevelt resented that Hopkins' marriage would eventually lead his key social and intellectual partner to move out of the White House.

Eleanor, similarly, depended upon Joe Lash, Lorena Hickok, her daughter Anna, and a number of people as sounding boards, foils, and, ultimately, sources of love. I'd say each of them demanded, and got, almost the entirety of the lives of ten individuals.

It's teaching me to be both more giving and more demanding of the people I would have close to me. Each of us has to find the handful of people -- rarely biologically related -- that make time and make a difference.

5. FDR overruled his military in key strategic decisions, and was right. But he did not try to fight the war himself, and he did not interfere at levels below grand strategy. To do this required tremendous confidence in one's self. In fact, it was Roosevelt's ability to remain calm even in the darkest days of the war that stunned, even creeped out, many who observed him.

This was a surprise to me, as I had previously read Partners in Command: George Marshall and Dwight Eisenhower in War and Peace. In it, it appeared that the American general staff in general, and Marshall in particular, possessed unusually clear insight into the strategic aspects of the war. However, as No Ordinary Time reveals, Marshall himself admits he was wrong about a number of things - notably the need to support Britain and the Soviet Union early in the war, at the expense of US readiness. Also, both books acknowledge that American combat forces were too green, and would have been slaughtered had a premature European invasion taken place. Rather than a sideshow, the African and Italian campaigns helped harden American ground troops, and prepared them for success in Normandy and the Battle of the Bulge.

After Korea and MacArthur, civilian leaders were especially wary of military overreach. After Vietnam, civilian leaders were unnerved by the use of force. One hopes America is only now finally emerging from an unhealthy period where both military and civilian leadership lacked the self-confidence, tempered by the wisdom of restraint, to exercise effective leadership.

6. One can be in love with someone and mostly live separate lives. In many ways, FDR and Eleanor's relationship has strong parallels to Bill and Hillary Clinton. Both couples loved each other, and drew upon each other's strengths. Both wives were betrayed by their husbands, and in important ways, never forgave them. But both women also used the experiences as proof that they had to develop their own separate lives.

The American Experience: Clinton (one of a fantastic set of documentaries about American presidents, including FDR) mentions that Hillary Clinton actually moved back to Arkansas during one of Bill's early campaigns, and looked as if she was going to become a housewife, albeit one who worked outside of the home.

FDR and Eleanor redefined their love, what it was to be in love, even as they both needed emotional support and got it from people other than their spouse. Even more than the case with the Clintons, one gets the sense that something is keeping them together that is larger than either political necessity nor the mores of the time. It's fair that both were in love with each other, but both were also exasperated by each other. They depended upon key intermediaries to know how to manage them, singly and together. Most couples are not so lucky.

7. Sometimes, we can be surprised by the simplicity of the needs and desires of people far form home.

I'll mention briefly that one poignant vignette concerned Eleanor's visits to field hospitals in the Pacific. She was initially worried that the troops were going to be disappointed, as security procedures only announced that "a woman" was coming to visit. Eleanor, ever conscious of not living up to her mother's beauty, was worried the men would be expecting a pinup girl. But she found that they appreciated her visits, because she was something they hadn't seen in a year of service - an American mother.

Of all the things that tug at the heart in this book, this seemed a particularly touching insight.


There are many other lessons. But this is a good starting point.