Some brief thoughts on climate change, prompted by the Economist

The following comments were in response to an Economist article, "Science behind closed doors", concerning climate change science. This is perhaps the first time I've publicly communicated my thoughts on the ongoing discussions of global warming and climate change. I would appreciate your input.

Vitriol surrounding climate change appears to conflate a few separate topics that have to be discussed in turn:

(1) The science of the greenhouse effect
(2) How much of it is caused by human activities (anthropogenic, in IPCC-speak)
(3) The effect of increased CO2 on temperatures, crop yields, disease, etc. on a regional basis
(4) Scientists’ roles as analysts/messengers/advocates
(5) How much governments, industry, and individuals should do to prevent it

Six impossible things I will dream of before breakfast

In brief:
1: A subculture of nonaggressive horn usage, using distinctive cars.
2: An efficient system of recycling on the elemental level.
3: A universal and comprehensive educational campaign about health and food for all children at a young age.
4: A science education curriculum to emphasize practical, actionable information.
5: A clearer framework of principles and ethics for my life
6: TBA

Follow-up analysis to HuffPo article on policy coordination

Follow-up analysis to David Bromwich: A Line in the Sand is Occasionally Useful

I just came across a short article at HuffPo about how Obama has publicly corrected statements made by Biden and Emmanuel regarding Israel and a public health care option, respectively. Bromwich should be praised for catching these easily-overlooked events, but I feel he takes the wrong message from each of these. I infer the following: either (1) Obama is using an internal system of advisement similar to that used by other leaders - particularly Elizabeth I and Louis XIV, whereby his silence and ambiguity on suggested ideas is a valuable tactic, or (2) the Administration is using Biden, Emmanuel, and others to float trial policies, to be reversed or modified based on the response.

AIG to disclose counterparties

This is big news: AIG plans to disclose CDS counterparties.

I'm a bit uncertain as to the timing of it - maybe it has to do with Treasury's increased leverage (no pun intended) with the AIG board and executives. Geithner already ordered AIG to suspend its bonus payments for 2009, and will claw back bonus payments from 2008 (Bloomberg). Maybe it has to do with the Wall Street Journal receiving a leaked document with the identities of some of the counterparties, and how much they've received.

Why we will be disappointed in Obama, and why we should not despair

This is Part 2 of a post on the removal of the Family Planning provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Bill of 2009. You can read part 1 here.

A lot of my friends will probably be dismayed that I sympathize with the choice to remove that particular provision from the Act. As I mentioned in Part 1, I am happy to discuss it, and reserve the right, as an intelligent, honest adult to change my views when presented with another, more durable position and argument.

But I wanted to tackle a broader issue in this post.

Mumbai

It should be no surprise that we stand with the people of India and Pakistan during this crisis. Good and decent individuals everywhere were horrified. And for all our faults, I believe the people of the United States still believe, and will yet sacrifice, for the right of individuals everywhere to be free and safe from tyranny. To our friends in the most distant parts of the globe, we offer our prayers, and our support.

But we must not substitute passion for policy, and bold words for substance. Both are needed. Though diminished by policy blunders foreign and domestic, the word, confidence, support, and - it is true - military might of the United States still speaks strongly, if not always convincingly, across the wide world. Yet it is precisely now, when the need for multilateral coordination of policy is greatest, that we find ourselves most vulnerable and least able to play a strong role.

This is not to say that the United States should or will retreat into isolation. The temptation is great, but the dangers are greater. We hope that the current necessary process of deleveraging, recapitalization, and rectifying trade imbalances will provide a more stable and transparent international financial system. In the meantime, balancing moral hazard, limited resources, and systemic risk, and mindful of the politically possible, we labor to manage expectations of many, many stakeholders. The time has not come for the United States to cede its leadership in many of the international institutions that it created and dominated in the post-WWII era; but it is long overdue for us to begin transmuting these institutions into something that can work in a multipolar world, a world where we welcome a stronger, richer, and ever more democratic India. Our experience teaches us the value of a democratic nation endowed with the talents of its people, its rich cultural heritage, its natural beauty, and, most importantly, good relations with stable neighbors. We wish the same destiny for India, distinct and improved by attention to history and its own distinctive heritage and values.

We stand with the people who grieve in Mumbai and every corner of the world. But we also pray, fervently, that the desire to do good does not lead us to settle for doing something. The goal may well be deteriorating relations between India and Pakistan. The emotional backlash and subsequent actions taken by all parties may result in just that.

Those in positions of power need no lecture from people like me; as is usually the case, those who know better need no reminder, and those who don't need no responsibility. For the rest of us, we must have the courage to read, think, and analyze, as we respect and appreciate the honesty and right for high emotions from all concerned. We should never deny the validity of emotions - but we must always, always question the judgment that comes from acting solely on them.

shantih
shantih
shantih

Roland Fryer on the Colbert Report

Roland Fryer, economist at Harvard, talks with Stephen Colbert about cash incentives for good grades in schools.

It's a hilarious interview - unlike a lot of people who come on this show, he is absolutely ready for Stephen's antics. He's too cool for school (Harvard, anyway). I'm starting to believe the observation that Harvard never tenures its assistant professors, thereby preserving its competitive advantage in stodginess and ossification. (Not really - I'm just mad they rejected me twice.)

More seriously, the question of incentives for good grades touches upon the idea of incentives in general in areas where the primary social structure is based on norms and not free-market capitalism (at least on the face of it). It's an interesting idea, and I hope it works. I'll be writing more about this later - in particular, when you attempt to create a bonus incentive scheme, there is a presupposition that the principal-agent relation is limited by motivation on the part of the agent. Is this an issue of motivation, or of capacity? To what extent can the added motivator effectively change capacity over any reasonable time period? What are the lessons to be learned from areas in the service sector where financial incentives are applied in situations where actors may be governed by social-welfare utility functions? And finally, what are the potential implications for the parent-child relationship - if external actors are seen as providers of material well-being, will this further erode the family, or simply offer a superior alternative and success model for children in families with failed parents?

Comments on the Cornell Bus Pass issue

This post is in reference to a Cornell Facebook group post on the anticipated end of free bus passes for incoming and first- and second- year graduate students students.

I don't think a protest will accept policy, especially because of the fairness issue highlighted by another post in this group.

If you want to get free bus passes, it would probably be a good idea to make a case for the cause based on economic as well as environmental impact. Cornell grads are pretty smart, know how to handle simple formulas in excel, conduct decent surveys, and do literature reviews.

To make the case, a few questions have to be asked:

If the Cornell bus pass is revoked...

1. how many grad students will decide not to purchase a bus pass?
- could probably do an electronic survey, with control group more senior grad students (confounding variable: effect of classes on need for frequent transportation to campus)

2. how many grad students would try to drive to campus instead?
- could probably do an electronic survey, with control group more senior grad students (confounding variable: effect of classes on need for frequent transportation to campus)
- important because of parking crunch, carbon emissions from cars;

3. How would this affect the price that TCAT can charge local businesses for its advertisements?
- a significant downturn in public transit usage would mean a smaller audience for bus ads, making them less valuable to local businesses/charities that advertise on the bus

4. How would this affect the frequency and range of bus routes?
- if the impacts were geographically or temporally localized, certain bus routes would close
- this could lead to secondary effects along the lines of (1), (2) and (3)

5. Using (1) and additional statistics on distance to campus of grad student residences and properties of cars typically owned by grad students (e.g. MPG), how much additional greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions would result?
- mitigated somewhat if certain bus lines close
- could quantify by assigning a somewhat arbitrary anticipated market rate for GHG emission per ton

6. Using (2), and possibly estimates of the increased wear and tear on cars and maintenance costs, how would the decrease in disposable income of grad students affect certain sectors of the local economy?
- gas stations and mechanics would benefit
- consumer retailers might lose slightly
- I doubt the elasticity of demand for these goods has been measured for grad students; can you generalize from studies of regional/national consumer behavior?

7. What is the cost of the Omnibus pass for the university for each graduating class?
- important to compare with the costs outlined above


Calculate all of these, and probably a few other things. Either the cost-benefit analysis will come out in favor of the free bus pass, or it won't. Even if it doesn't you could make an argument about certain externalities that haven't quite been internalized, such as
- damage to Cornell's reputation for being green
- damage to student-administration relation
- damage to school's reputation in community
- increased financial pressure for some members of the graduate community (e.g. humanities students more impacted than the engineers/scientists)
- lost productivity from grad students taking time away from research to organize, petition, conduct a cost-benefit analysis, negotiate with the administration...

Ok, what other options? Those listed on the website include -
picket
petition

A petition is easy, though I'm pessimistic about the ability of it working. It's better than nothing though - someone volunteer to draft the text, and someone be responsible for consolidating the petitions into one document after they have about 10 signatories each, vetting them for repeats.

A picket could happen, though my experience with protests is that (1) if you don't get enough people, they look really, really sad; (2) even if you get a lot of people, they tend to have credibility if the cause is (a) universal in its impact, and (b) have a clear opponent, (c) avoid the taint of self-interest, (d) are attended by individuals with credibility.

Weber cites three sources of legitimacy - charismatic, institutional, and traditional. The student protest depends heavily on the first, where charisma is understood to be a combination of passion and rationality (i.e., a Nobel Laureate is often better than a convicted felon). By their nature protests are not institutionalized, though the existing institutional framework may exist through a set of established advocacy/environmental organizations. Legitimacy from tradition has also been hindered because of the failure of the protest to become as part of student culture as it was during the Vietnam war, its perceived powerlessness to stop the Iraq war, and a culture (vis a vis France) that prefers the security of rule of law to the liberty and risk of frequent labor/student protests.

Quite frankly, if you can find someone who has the ability to get a crowd worked up about bus passes without coming off as self-serving or quixotic, such a talent is squandered in graduate study and should be readily employed in resurrecting American populism. With roughly one-half to two-thirds of the graduate community not standing to lose from this policy, it will be short work to exploit that division to give the appearance that the protesters are self-serving first- and second-year students. Therefore, I would conclude that charismatic legitimacy will be absent from a protest.

So what do you do? Barring insurgency, which at some level could have been reflected in the Redbud Woods 2005 incident, I believe you are left to operate within the system. Organize a coalition of businesses and community interests likely to be impacted, as determined from the analysis outlined above. Then go to President Skorton and the Board of Trustees to make your case. I would assume that most of this analysis has been done internally; the student case will be to claim that certain costs were not accounted for in the economic analysis, and that these are sufficient to warrant a change in the policy.

My two cents. I'm not a policy analyst, or even a particularly competent student of organizational behavior. I'm actually a burned-out volunteer who got tired of seeing people protest and go home, or let ego interfere with a cause or mission, instead of working toward long-term, incremental changes in culture and valuations through the creation of institutions and the painstakingly slow process of winning hearts and minds. Best wishes on your efforts.