The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government issued a report on state income tax revenue available at their website (pdf). In case you want a preview, look no further than their title: "April is the Cruelest Month". (Confused? Click here. And start reading him before I have to stop being friends with you.)
Calculated Risk had two separate posts (1, 2) on the data. They helpfully consolidate the income tax data into two easy-to-understand charts, one showing year-over-year percentage changes by region, another by state.
As an indication of the quality of CR, they followed up on a reader's suggestion and re-graphed it by state, weighted by the percentage of total state tax revenue that are generated by personal income taxes.
I've copied the graphs, which appear below.
Note that Arizona fares much better than by the simpler, non-adjusted measure, while California, New York, and Oregon are still hosed.
What can we infer from this? Well, I haven't yet read the full report - I will post an update if I do. But it should be clear that the regions most heavily affected by the housing collapse also appear to be the regions where there is the most pressure on state coffers. Secondly, states that, for whatever reason, have a tax system that is less heavily dependent on income taxes may be better able to weather the storm, and, if they should be so politically inclined, could embark upon state-level stimulus efforts, as well as extended unemployment benefits. In other words, these are the states to consider if you're looking for a job.
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